Minas LYRISTIS
| Abstract: | The ongoing Russian Federation-Ukraine war has produced consequences far beyond Ukraine’s battlefield, reshaping the security, diplomatic and informational environment of Eastern and Southeastern Europe. This article analyses the conflict through a qualified proxy-war framework, treating the war not as a simple Russia–West confrontation that denies Ukrainian agency, but as a conflict in which Ukraine’s existential defence is embedded in indirect great-power competition through military assistance, sanctions, alliance signalling and strategic narratives. The article argues that the proxy-war dynamic produces differentiated regional outcomes through three mechanisms: securitisation, politicisation and narrative transmission. In frontline NATO and EU states, the war reinforces threat perception, defence adaptation and demand for allied reassurance. In states marked by energy dependence, domestic polarization or historical-cultural ties to Russia, the same framing can legitimize hedging, selective alignment or neutrality claims. In exposed partner states and vulnerable media environments, it increases susceptibility to hybrid pressure by turning external strategic narratives into domestic political cleavages. By comparing frontline allies, intra-alliance dissenters, Western Balkan balancers, Black Sea states and exposed partner states, the article shows how the proxy-war lens connects security dilemmas, diplomatic positioning and information warfare within a single regional framework. The findings suggest that the Black Sea–Balkan–Eastern Mediterranean corridor will remain characterized by uneven deterrence, selective cooperation and persistent hybrid contestation. |
| Keywords: | proxy war; Russia–Ukraine war; hybrid warfare; disinformation; security |