{"id":1944,"date":"2026-06-04T07:12:17","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T07:12:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/?p=1944"},"modified":"2026-06-04T07:12:17","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T07:12:17","slug":"modeling-the-resilience-of-power-systems-to-critical-external-impacts%ef%80%aa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/modeling-the-resilience-of-power-systems-to-critical-external-impacts%ef%80%aa\/","title":{"rendered":"MODELING THE RESILIENCE OF POWER SYSTEMS TO CRITICAL EXTERNAL IMPACTS\uf02a"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Alexei RUSANOV <br \/>\nEvghenii KANAROVSKII<br \/>\n <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<table width=\"659\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"103\"><strong>Abstract:<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: justify;\" width=\"556\">Energy systems form the core of modern societal functioning, and their reliability directly influences public safety as well as the stability of national and regional economies. In the context of increasing hybrid threats, assessing the vulnerability of power networks and their capacity to maintain operational resilience has become critically important.<br \/>\nThe purpose of this research is to develop a minimal mathematical model that enables the analysis of power system behavior under critical disturbances and supports the prediction of systemic failures and their consequences. The proposed approach integrates two complementary levels. The deterministic level describes the dynamic response of the power grid and the cascade effects associated with line overloads and frequency deviations from nominal values. This is achieved through the use of swing equations for synchronous machines and the computation of power-flow redistribution under crisis conditions. The stochastic level introduces uncertainty stemming from random equipment failures and rare but severe external shocks, modeled via a Poisson process combined with heavy-tailed distributions.<br \/>\nTo evaluate system resilience, multiple computer simulations are performed, yielding key indicators such as Expected Unserved Energy (EUE), average recovery time (TTR), and the probability of system collapse. The model is sufficiently realistic, incorporating correlated component failures and limited repair resources.<br \/>\nThe practical relevance of the study lies in its applicability to risk assessment, scenario analysis, verification of emergency automation systems, and prioritization of infrastructure restoration. Thus, the model serves as a versatile analytical tool for engineers and energy policy experts seeking to enhance energy security and system resilience.\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"103\"><strong>Keywords:<\/strong><\/td>\n<td style=\"text-align: justify;\" width=\"556\"><strong>power system, swing equations, stochastic processes, external shocks, equipment failures.<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/wp-content\/uploads\/Alexei-RUSANOV-No.1-2026-65-74.pdf\">STUDIA SECURITATIS No. 1 2026 65-74<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alexei RUSANOV Evghenii KANAROVSKII<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[406],"tags":[490,488,482,486,484],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1944"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1944"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1944\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1945,"href":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1944\/revisions\/1945"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/magazines.ulbsibiu.ro\/studiasecuritatis\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}